Posted Thursday, January 17th, 2019
The Morris County Office of Emergency Management continues to monitor the inbound weather event for Morris County. The snow that we anticipate for later this evening (Thursday) into tomorrow morning (Friday) appears to be a minor-issue, with potential overall accumulations expected to be about one-inch.
Our focus continues to remain on the weekend storm system which some forecast models have classified as a “crippling, high impact winter storm.” We have been monitoring several models, and we still see low confidence in forecast data due to the complex pattern as it relates to the overall storm track, precipitation type, total accumulations, etc.
Please keep in mind that this is a changing storm system and the data and forecasts likely will vary over the course of the next day or so. Some models suggest that snow will start Saturday evening (after 6 p.m., with the possibility of a few hours of sleet and freezing rain Sunday morning, which is expected to conclude with a few hours of snow Sunday afternoon.
The National Weather Service has not yet locked into specific details beyond stating that, “a significant snow accumulation is probable across northern New Jersey with a flash freeze occurring on wet surfaces later Sunday afternoon and night.”
It will likely take another 24 hours before more accurate details come in for the weekend system. At this time, the various models have snow range accumulations of “at least 3-to-6 inches (or higher) with the possibility of up to 12 inches.” As for winds, the current data suggests that winds will be most intense Sunday afternoon/night, sustained from the northwest at 12-25 mph with gusts of 35-45 mph.
The current discrepancy in the models deals with the freezing rain. If the freezing rain occurs (potentially for a few hours on Sunday morning), that would keep our snow amounts lower. The potential also exists for up to a quarter inch of ice over the course of several hours. If the majority of the precipitation ends up being snowfall, then snow totals will likely be significantly higher. We should have a higher confidence in the forecast data for our area sometime tomorrow.
We will continue to monitor and provide updates as necessary.
Stay warm and safe!